Friday, 21 January 2022

Springtime jobs

I've had a bit of a medical hiatus over the last couple  weeks, so no blogging.   But yesterday was a pretty day, sunny and not too cold, so we took the opportunity to prune the climbing roses on the lodge.   Not a very rewarding actvitiy at the time, since the rose has nasty thorns and I always end up with the tips of a few thorns irritating my finger tips.   But I hope that the reward will be in the form of lots of big, scented flowers in due course.   The rose is Ena Harkness; hybrid Tea, blood red and with a sweet perfume.

We shred the cuttings as we go.  That reminds me, the shredder motor is leaking oil.  Must get that sorted.   The pic shows us partway throug the job - you can see where we've been and how it was beforehand.



Saturday, 1 January 2022

Exponential growth

Exponential growth happens when the rate of growth of something is proportional to the amount of the something that you have.  Doubling every day is an example of exponential growth.

Plants, until they approach their natural limits, tend to exhibit exponential growth: the more leaves it has, the faster it can make new leaves.   My Wisteria has been growing exponentially for a few years now, and it was time to prune it.  Drastically.

Wisteria sends out creepers to explore growth opportunities, and these can get everywhere, and when they get there, they get thicker as they age.   So if they get into the roof, they can prise off the tiles, or if behind a drainpipe, they can prise it off the wall.   My plant was under the tiles and behind the drainpipe.  Time to act.

Wisteria is a stringy plant, so if your pruning shears are not sharp or there is the slightest gap between the shearing blades, when you try to cut the branches, you will end up with two bits of wood joined together by a tough stringy bit that is hard to break.   The first thing I had to do was get a new set of shears.

It was a three-day job, yielding three trailer-loads of clippings to take to the dump.   Some of the creepers were amazing - one that got under the tiles must have been 6 yards long when I pulled it out, and must have grown entirely parasitically - it can't have got any light where it was.





Wednesday, 22 December 2021

False positives

There are two kinds of error in medical diagnostic tests: the test indicates negative when there is disease present, or positive when there isn't.   Given that a person either has the disease or doesn't, and tests positive or negative, these four are the only possible outcomes:

  • Patient has the disease and tests positive - GOOD
  • Patient has the disease and tests negative - BAD
  • Patient doesn't have the disease and tests negative - GOOD
  • Patient doesn't have the disease and tests positive - BAD
The error rate for a diagnostic test is therefore fully specified by two statistics, labelled as % false positives and % false negatives.   Fine so far.

The problem is that the % false positives is not the percentage of positive test results that are false, although it sounds like it should be.  It is the (average) percentage of people who don't have the disease who none the less test positive.  The two things are very different.

To illustrate, let's consider an imaginary diagnostic test - a good one.   Let's suppose our test has a false positive rate of 1% and a false negative rate of 0%.   This would be an extraordinarily good test - I don't know if any tests available today meet these criteria.

Let's now suppose that we roll out this test on a population where the true rate of infection is, say 500 per 100,000.  (That is, 5 per 1000, or 1 for every 200 people) This kind of infection rate has our political leaders losing control of their anal sphincters, so it's a "bad" scenario. 

Let's test 200 of these people, chosen at random.  On average there will be one person infected, and our excellent test always indicates positive for that person.  But we also get around 2 false positives (1% of 199).  So if you are a member of this population, and you test positive, the chance that you actually have the disease is about 1 in 3, that is 33%, and the chances that you don't are about 67%.

If the false positive rate of our test was 10% (a more realistic figure), a positive test result would mean you had only a 5% chance of having the disease.   If the true infection rate were lower, the chances of having the disease if you test positive would be (even) lower. 

Wednesday, 15 December 2021

Accordeon at Le Mans

Richard Galliano is a renowned accordeon player, and he gave a concert recently at the Palais des Congrès et de la Culture in Le Mans.   He was playing alongside the strings from the Orchestre Nationale de Pays de la Loire, conducted by Mme Alexandra Cravero, in what was billed as a tribute to Piazzolla, an Argentinian composer who is remembered for introducing the tango into the classical music repertoire.

We had decided to make a day of it, and went in time for lunch at the Auberge des Sept Plats, and then did some random shopping.   We had booked a room at a Chambres d'Hôtes just down the road from the concert, to minimise walking, and to avoid a long drive home late at night.

The official check-in time for the Chambres d'Hôtes was 5 PM, and we had some time to spare, so we found the place and Anita went and asked the man there if we could check-in a bit earlier.  He said there would be no problem after 4:30, and to park outside.  So we did.  Surprise.  After we rang the bell, a woman opened the window, told us we couldn't park there, and we couldn't stay anyway because she was ill.  And besides, she runs the place, and not the gentleman Anita had spoken to earlier.  I don't think I've ever experienced a more hostile reception.   We sat in the car and phoned the Ibis just down the road, and, being assured that they had plenty of rooms, drove there and checked in.

The concert was excellent.  Richard Galliano provided the musical excellence that one expects of a master; he played an accordeon for most pieces, and a bandoneon for Piazzolla's concerto for that instrument.   

The Ibis hotel to the north of the railway station was very friendly,  and with a bit more comfort and character than one might expect of a hotel aimed primarily at the business traveller.   It also provided a superb breakfast that lasted me nearly all day.

Thursday, 9 December 2021

Submarine museum

I didn't know that there is a submarine museum at Gosport, but I saw a poster for it on the way from Portsmouth dock to my sister's place.  I decided to take a look.

I think that I was the only visitor at the time, so I got a personal guided tour of the big sub on display, HMS Alliance.  I expected it to be cramped inside, but when you think that a crew of 64 men was on board, that water was scarce and they didn't wash much, I can't imagine what they smelt like when they came ashore.

There were many interesting exhibits, so here's just a few that I found especially interesting:  A B40 communications receiver.  When I was a kid, I had a friend who had one of these, and we listened in to the radio hams around the world.   The wonders of SSB transmissions, and the strange sounds of the wireless world.  Actually the sub had a B41, but it was as I remember the B40, although smaller than I thought.


How about these for a bunch of push rods and rocker arms?  I bet the make a racket when they're going.


Apparently, submariners would keep the beer in the torpedo tubes to keep it cool.  I was sadly informed of The Great Beer Tragedy when the tube was evacuated without checking for beer first.


In a different part of the museum I came across this massive piece of ironwork.  It looked solid and must weigh several tons.  It is a chain tester; it was used to test the breaking strength of chains.  Here's the thing:  it was bought second-hand in 1901 and was in use until 2020.  That's more than one hundred and nineteen years of useful life.  I think we have become too complacent about things that stop working after 10 years or even less.


Finally, there was a squirrel in the grounds, cue my latest offering in my portfolio of wildlife pics, in an attempt to be accepted as a BBC wildlife photographer.




Wednesday, 8 December 2021

Revisit

While in England I decided to revisit some old haunts.   I have fond memories of wasting time along the river Meon, floating model boats that I had made, or just exploring.  It's less friendly these days, but still pretty, if only viewable now from the road.


Titchfield Abbey is still magnificent, spotlit in the evening, and the Fisherman's Rest, scene of many under-age drinking bouts, (at least, in my day) is still in business.

I wonder if I was a young teenager, I'd still be able to do what I used to there.  I doubt it.   I wonder what I'd do instead.

Tuesday, 7 December 2021

Tangmere

This year I had the opportunity, not to be missed, of visiting the RAF museum at Tangmere before it closed for the season.   I took it.   I used to fly gliders there when I was a member of the Air Training Corps, and I have fond memories fo the place, so I went to see what they were up to.  The airfield itself has been turned over to growing vegetables, but some of the buildings remain.

I found it to be a fitting tribute to the people who flew and died, and learnt some interesting facts.   I didn't know that the RAF lost nearly 1,000 aircraft and the corresponding number of pilots in the evacuation of France, nor that Douglas Bader ran the training school at Tangmere towards the end of his career.

There was a lot of information about the pilots and the history of Tangmere, with example aircraft and flight sims that you could use.   Everything that you could reasonably hope for or expect in a museum of this kind.

I also noticed an atmosphere, a feel of the place if you like.   It was staffed, as far as I could tell, by ex-pilots and ground crew who were giving their time to help keep the memories alive.  They had "been there, done that", and had nothing to prove.  They were friendly and pleasant and knew their stuff.   I'm glad I went.



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